WIREDGOV

National Records of Scotland have published additional population projections for Scotland based on varying potential levels of EU migration.

The 3 additional variant projections do not have National Statistics status and have been created for illustrative purposes only.  The additional variant projections are: zero future EU migration; 50% future EU migration (50% less future EU migration); and 150% future EU migration (50% more future EU migration). Each of these variants has been produced for both Scotland and the UK as a whole (including Scotland).

The principal projection is the main projection, and if current trends continue it suggests that the population of Scotland may rise from 5.35m in 2014 to 5.7m in 2039 – an increase of 7% over the 25 year period.                         

In the zero future EU migration variant, the population of Scotland is projected to rise to 5.49m in 2039 – an increase of 3% from 2014.  However under this variant, the population is projected to peak at 5.50m in 2033 and then decline gradually after that point.

For the 50% future EU migration variant, the population of Scotland is projected to rise to 5.59m in 2039 – an increase of 5% from 2014.

ScotGov:  Statistical News Release ~ The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth - Migration Observatory ~ According the principal projection, England will experience by far the largest population growth (+17% over the next 25 years)