WIREDGOV

The Economy

• GDP growth forecasts look reasonable

• Prediction of a gradual resumption in housing market activity could disappoint

• The OBR forecasts the deficit on the trade balance to shrink gradually, while NIESR is expecting it to widen over the next few years before starting to shrink

Public Finances

• Chancellor’s forecasts suggest fiscal consolidation this parliament broadly equivalent to the last, but different composition

• Weak inflation and low interest rates are flattering the fiscal outlook

• Tax receipts now expected to be higher, reducing public sector net borrowing

Tax Credits and Universal Credit

• Future Universal Credit claimants still face cuts. Overall, the welfare payment cuts have been delayed, but not fully undone.

• Two tax credit cuts, family element and two-child cap, still going ahead.

Housing Market

• More flexible forms of home ownership are welcome

• Today’s measures direct more of our national savings into housing; may not bode well for the UK’s long-term productivity challenges

• Tax system is the biggest distortion to the housing market; nothing in the Autumn Statement that addresses our longer term housing problems.