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EXPERT COMMENT

Alliance countries need better understanding of the risks to their undersea infrastructure, and improved signalling to deter Russian sabotage and hybrid attacks.

Since Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, the narrative around Baltic security among alliance members has been almost triumphant. The Baltic Sea has been described as a ‘NATO lake’ and various Baltic countries have celebrated the increase in their security.

However, Russia’s recent activity in the Baltic shows that NATO members need to remain vigilant in the region, and even strengthen their defences.

Increasingly paranoid about NATO’s intentions, Russia is likely to push back against the alliance in the Baltic. In the process it could significantly increase the risk of escalation, as it uses its hybrid playbook to test NATO’s defences – and conduct acts of sabotage where there is plausible deniability.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.