WIREDGOV

The UK’s goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% in 2050 remains in line with the international commitment to 2°C, the Committee on Climate Change says today. The UK must also agree reductions to 2030 as part of its “fifth carbon budget”. A reduction in emissions beyond those currently agreed for the mid-2020s is consistent with the UK’s cost-effective path to 2050, and with scientific and international developments.

In a new report, ‘The scientific and international context for the fifth carbon budget’, the Committee sets out the climate science and global circumstances that will inform its advice to Government on the fifth carbon budget. That advice is due to be published at the end of November, ahead of the international climate talks in Paris.

The fifth carbon budget will set the maximum level of domestic emissions between 2028 and 2032, and marks the half-way point from the first budget period (2008-2012). Climate science and international commitments are two factors the Committee is required to take into account when recommending carbon budgets. Other factors include the lowest-cost path to 2050, impacts on fuel poverty, energy security, competitiveness and the Government’s fiscal position.

The Committee’s report today examines the latest climate science and finds that impacts from climate change are already being detected, from changes in weather extremes and ecosystems to a loss of productivity for some key crops. Limiting warming to around 2°C will not eliminate all risks, but avoids some extremely dangerous changes expected if no action is taken to reduce global emissions.

Assessing international action to-date, the Committee finds that the EU’s current pledge for 2030 (the middle of the fifth carbon budget period) suggests a best estimate of a reduction in UK emissions of 54% relative to 1990 (within a range of 51-57%). Globally, more is needed to give a reasonable likelihood of keeping below 2°C.

Lord Deben, Chairman of the Committee on Climate Change, said: “The UK’s commitment to reduce its emissions to-date has been in line with current commitments by all countries to limit global warming to the internationally agreed limit of 2ºC. Legislation of the fifth carbon budget is an important element in keeping the UK in-line with international developments and ensuring UK businesses and households are in a position to benefit from the future low-carbon world.”