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Alternative vote would create 44 new marginal seats, says new report
Independent analysis from think-tank nef (the new economics foundation) shows that AV would increase the power of the average voter, but not eradicate inequalities in the UK voting system.
Exactly one month before the UK votes on whether to change its parliamentary electoral system from First Past the Post (FPtP) to the Alternative Vote (AV), new independent research reveals how the influence of voters would change under the proposed AV system.
The Voter Power Index finds that moving to AV would mean:
- An increase in the average power of UK voters from 0.285 of a vote to 0.352 of a vote (where a score of 1 is a fair vote). A rise of 23.5 per cent.
- An increase in the number of very marginal seats from 81 to 125, an increase of 44 seats.
- A small reduction of inequality in the power of votes with the most powerful fifth of electors going from having 21 times the power of the least powerful fifth down to 18 times.
The report is based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of general elections in the UK over the last 30 years and concludes that although AV does offer some improvements over FPtP it will not alter the main problem with the UK’s voting system: single member constituencies. A fairer voting system is possible, but only if the UK moves towards larger constituencies, where voters elect multiple MPs for their area. Such systems are already used in the UK to elect the London Assembly, Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and the UK’s members of the European Parliament.
“Our research over the last six years has consistently shown that the UK’s electoral system is a postcode lottery, pointlessly riddled with inequalities of power.” said Nic Marks, nef fellow and creator of the Voter Power Index. “The Alternative Vote will make some improvements on the current system, but it won’t get rid of the main problems. Voters need to decide for themselves whether these improvements are worth a Yes vote. Unfortunately whatever the outcome of the referendum, politicians will still largely ignore voters in safe seats, while they spend most of their time, money and energy trying to woo swing voters in marginal constituencies.”
“Our analysis shows that AV would increase the power of all voters, particularly those in safe seats. But it’s clear that if we want a voting system that is really fair, then we’ll need more choices than just AV and FPtP.” said Stephen Whitehead, nef researcher and co-author of the report.
The Voter Power Index website (www.voterpower.org.uk), created by web designer Martin Petts, allows visitors to find their voter power by postcode and display a ranking of the UK’s constituencies.
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