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Changes to inflation measures and stabilising life expectancies improve position for UK private sector pension schemes, but pain still to come for public sector says KPMG

. Change to CPI set to wipe almost £60bn off UK private sector pension liabilities by the end of 2011, reveals KPMG Pensions Accounting Survey

  • ·     . Assumed life expectancies now stabilising at 88 for a 45 year old man and 91 for a 45 year old woman
     
  • ·     . But while private sector may be stabilising, the public sector faces pain on pensions, says KPMG
     

    Preliminary findings from the forthcoming 2011 Pensions Accounting Survey from KPMG in the UK reveal that the change to using CPI as the pension inflation measure and stabilising life expectancies have improved the position for UK private sector pension fund liabilities.

    Commenting on the life expectancy data, Mike Smedley, Pensions Partner at KPMG in the UK, said: “Our sample’s assumptions that life expectancies are stabilising contrast with data out today showing that overall UK life expectancies are still increasing.  There are a number of reasons for this.  First, our sample is looking at assumed life expectancies for people who have already reached a particular age (usually 45 or 65) as opposed to from birth.  Second, companies have been ‘baking in’ increasing life expectancies for some time.  And thirdly, corporates make assumptions based on actuarial data relating to their particular scheme members which usually differs from the population as a whole.  As no one lives forever, it is likely that the life expectancies for the wider UK population will, in time, also stabilise.”

     

    Despite historically low real yields, many companies have seen big improvements in their reported IFRS pension deficits over 2010/11.  Factors contributing to this include:

     

  • The move to CPI as the measure of inflation – set to reduce liabilities by almost £60bn by end 2011 - Based on the initial findings from KPMG’s Pensions Accounting Survey 2011, 135 out of 265 companies are using CPI as the basis for certain benefit increases, with a typical rate being 2.9%, or 0.6% below median RPI estimates of 3.5%.  Based on this sample, KPMG estimates that this has already reduced UK private sector pension liabilities by some £25 billion.  But government projections are for a 0.9% p.a. long-term differential which would increase this reduction by a further potential £12.5 billion.  Some companies will not have reflected the CPI change yet, waiting for clarification of their obligations, and we anticipate a further saving of as much as £20 billion coming through in 2011.
  •  Life expectancies stabilising - In recent years, increasing life expectancy has placed a major financial burden on scheme sponsors.  Based on the KPMG Survey however, assumed life expectancies are now stable, with median assumed life expectancies at 31 December 2010 of 87 for a male pensioner currently aged 65 and 88 for a male member currently aged 45.  Assumed median life expectancies for females are 89 and 91 respectively.  These are unchanged from those observed in both the 2009 and 2010 Surveys, following significant jumps in the period 2004-2007, indicating that companies now think they have got the allowance for life expectancy about right.  These compare with life expectancies in the Hutton report for a 60 year old of 82 for males and 85 for females, based on general population statistics from the ONS
  • Strong asset returns and continued deficit contributions - A typical pension scheme portfolio would have returned positive growth of around 13% in 2010.

     

    Commenting on the positive findings, Mike Smedley said: “This period of relative stability gives corporates a strong platform to implement risk reduction strategies.  Whilst deficits have fallen, rising asset and liability values mean that schemes look bigger relative to the corporate sponsor.  Strategies to remove liabilities or risk must be at the front of the corporate agenda.  The provision of CPI linked pension increases across many schemes also creates a demand for CPI linked government debt, time will tell whether the Debt Management Office reacts to this.”

     

    Pensions pain swings from private to public sector

     

    Meanwhile, the Hutton report into public sector pensions has recently recommended a range of changes to public sector schemes, including a move from final salary to career average benefits and an increase to retirement age.  This follows the move to CPI for public sector schemes in 2010 and the anticipated increases to employee contribution rates. 

     

    Smedley added “Following a tough period for private sector scheme members and employers, the pendulum has now swung, and we expect public sector employees to now start feeling the pain.  The Chancellor can do much to maintain private sector confidence with a pensions friendly budget.”

      

    For further information please contact:

    Margot Cowhig, KPMG Corporate Communications

    Tel:  0207 694 4246 Mobile: 07920 274856: margot.cowhig@kpmg.co.uk

    KPMG Press Office: 0207 694 8773

     

    Notes to editors.

    KPMG Pensions Accounting Survey 2011 will be available in May 2011.  Our 2010 survey featured analysis of the financial and demographic assumptions of 302 companies.  The figures used in this release are based on an early cut of data in respect of 265 companies reporting as at 31 December 2010 under IFRS or equivalent.

    Life expectancy assumptions for males from age 65 onwards (years) at 31 December (KPMG data samples)

     

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    Current 65 year old

    18.4

    19.5

    20.1

    21.2

    21.7

    21.8

    21.8

    Current 45 year old from 65

    19.4

    19.8

    21.0

    22.3

    23.1

    23.1

    23.3

     

    About KPMG

    KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and operates from 22 offices across the UK with nearly 11,000 partners and staff.  The UK firm recorded a turnover of £1.6 billion in the year ended September 2010. KPMG is a global network of professional firms providing Audit, Tax, and Advisory services. We operate in 150 countries and have more than 138,000 professionals working in member firms around the world. The independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity.  KPMG International provides no client services.

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