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New climate mitigation scenario highlights stark challenge ahead
Latest research has shown that emissions of CO 2 will need to be reduced close to zero by the end of this century if a rise in the mean global temperature beyond 2 °C is to be avoided. A temperature rise of no more than 2 °C is widely acknowledged as the ‘safe’ level to avoid dangerous climate change.
This finding follows the development of a new climate mitigation
scenario constructed using the same principles that will be
adopted by the next IPCC assessment review using concentrations of
greenhouse gases and other forcings as a starting point. Modellers
have then been able to establish what level of emissions would
need to be achieved so as to restrict global temperature rise.
This research, revealed at ‘ENSEMBLES – A changing
climate in Europe’ symposium at the Met Office in Exeter,
is the culmination of five years of research from 66 institutes
across Europe, led by the Met Office Hadley Centre and funded by
the European Commission.
John Mitchell, Director of Climate Science at the Met Office
and ENSEMBLES co-ordinator said: “This latest research emphasises
the necessity to make drastic cuts in emissions as quickly and as
soon as possible if we are to avoid dangerous climate change and
highlights the importance of the negotiations that will take place
in Copenhagen in December.”
Dan Norris, Minister for Rural Affairs and Environment said:
“The revolutionary UK Climate Projections 2009 that we launched
last summer, based on Met Office science, showed that not only do
we need to tackle the causes of climate change but also that we
must deal with the consequences. I’m delighted that the Met Office
is hosting this symposium. It reinforces the leadership role that
the UK and other member states are playing in international
climate science and policy. Just as importantly, it’s a chance to
take stock – to discuss the science that has been developed,
advances made, and to look at the priorities and the next set of
questions we need to address.”
Other findings from the ENSEMBLES research program include:
An ensemble prediction system giving the first probabilistic climate projections of temperature and rainfall changes fro Europe this century; An assessment of the impact of climate change on a range of sectors including agriculture, health, energy, water resources and insurance relevant to decisions being made today;A clearer picture of the physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the climate system and how to represent them in models that will increase certainty in climate predictions; The development of the first high resolution climate observation datasets for Europe that can be used to validate ensemble predictions.
ENDS
Notes to Editors
· ENSEMBLES is a five-year research project on climate change and its impacts on Europe that is funded by the European Commission as an EU framework program 6 project.
· The findings of the ENSEMBLES programme are being reported at a symposium hosted at the Met Office in Exeter between 17 th and 19 th November. A press day will take place on the 16 th November with a series of briefings from lead scientists of the project themes with opportunity for individual discussion. Journalists should register at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/conference/ensembles/
· Led by the Met Office and involving 66 partners, the project is the biggest ever integrated climate change research project. Using the most up to date models, ENSEMBLES has made significant advances in producing climate projections and assessing the impacts.
· The Met Office is the UK’s National Weather Service, providing 24x7 world-renowned scientific excellence in weather, climate and environmental forecasts and severe weather warnings for the protection of life and property.
· The Met Office Hadley Centre is the UK’s foremost centre for climate change research. Partly funded by DECC, Defra (the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) and the Ministry of Defence.
Contacts:
Press Office
Phone: 01392 886655
pressoffice@metoffice.gov.uk
