WGPlus (Archive)
Editorial Commentary; Lies, Damned Lies. Statistics and Treasury Brexit Forecasts |
Britain’s economy would be tipped into a year-long recession, with at least 500,000 jobs lost and GDP around 3.6% lower, following a vote to leave the EU, new Treasury analysis launched yesterday by the PM & Chancellor shows. Speaking at B&Q in Eastleigh, Hampshire, the Prime Minister and Chancellor set out the Treasury’s analysis of the impact on the nation’s economy over the immediate period of two years following a vote to leave. This analysis shows that such a decision would cause an immediate and profound economic shock across the country, creating instability and uncertainty which would be made worse by the complex negotiations that would follow to agree the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU and its new relationship with the rest of Europe. Britain to enter recession with 500,000 UK jobs lost if it left EU, new Treasury analysis shows (26/05/2016) HM Treasury analysis shows leaving EU would cost British households £4,300 per year (18/04 2016) The problem with official Government forecasts is that they become part of the public record, which people can look back on and comment on at a future date. So it is no surprise that Brexiteers announce their incredulity when the Chancellor / HM Treasury appear to have recycled press releases forecasting ‘the end of the UK’s economic world’ if we don’t remain in servitude to our EC/EU ‘masters. Just like in 2016, when there were many expert’ forecasting ‘doom & gloom’ if we moved to WTO trading terms (like most of the world trade done with the EU), there are some less hysterical analysis publications which cast reasoned doubt on those findings. B4B: The Treasury claims a ‘no deal’ Brexit will cut UK GDP by 8% – just how silly is this? (November 2018) BfB: Project Fear Alive & Well Some definitions of the term ‘Expert’ Briefings for Brexit has helpfully provided an analysis of just what the PM’s ‘only option’ deal would commit us too and one can see why she is having such a hard job selling it and why MP’s are unlikely to vote for it. B4B: Selling a sellout - the truth about the PM’s ‘deal’ with Brussels Finally, perhaps the PM, Chancellor, HMT and other forecasters would do well to reflect on an old quote by Abraham Lincoln; “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.” |
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Editorial commentary: More Brexit ‘pondering’ PWC: UK could remain a top 10 global economy in 2050, despite Brexit One notes that the Commonwealth population is over 5 times the size of a post Brexit EU! Open Europe: Nothing to declare - A plan for UK-EU trade outside the Customs Union Civitas: British business need have little to fear from EU tariff barriers Civitas: EU share of UK exports is in dramatic decline, new analysis shows Editorial commentary; Some ‘more positive’ aspects of Brexit |