|Editorial Commentary; Lies, Damned Lies. Statistics and Treasury Brexit Forecasts|
Britain’s economy would be tipped into a year-long recession, with at least 500,000 jobs lost and GDP around 3.6% lower, following a vote to leave the EU, new Treasury analysis launched yesterday by the PM & Chancellor shows.
Speaking at B&Q in Eastleigh, Hampshire, the Prime Minister and Chancellor set out the Treasury’s analysis of the impact on the nation’s economy over the immediate period of two years following a vote to leave.
This analysis shows that such a decision would cause an immediate and profound economic shock across the country, creating instability and uncertainty which would be made worse by the complex negotiations that would follow to agree the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU and its new relationship with the rest of Europe.
The problem with official Government forecasts is that they become part of the public record, which people can look back on and comment on at a future date.
So it is no surprise that Brexiteers announce their incredulity when the Chancellor / HM Treasury appear to have recycled press releases forecasting ‘the end of the UK’s economic world’ if we don’t remain in servitude to our EC/EU ‘masters.
Just like in 2016, when there were many expert’ forecasting ‘doom & gloom’ if we moved to WTO trading terms (like most of the world trade done with the EU), there are some less hysterical analysis publications which cast reasoned doubt on those findings.
Briefings for Brexit has helpfully provided an analysis of just what the PM’s ‘only option’ deal would commit us too and one can see why she is having such a hard job selling it and why MP’s are unlikely to vote for it.