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EXPERT COMMENT

China’s new climate plan announced at the UN General Assembly has a disappointing headline target – but Beijing is likely to over-deliver, and it’s in its interest to place low-carbon development at the centre of its push for a new international order.

International climate politics is in flux. The United States is, once again, withdrawing from global climate efforts. In his address to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) on 23 September, President Donald Trump called climate change the greatest ‘con job ever perpetrated on the world’ while advising the world leaders watching that ‘if you don’t get away from this green scam, your country is going to fail.’ 

Meanwhile, the EU has managed to erode its own diplomatic influence in the run-up to COP30 by failing to submit its national climate plan (Nationally Determined Contribution, NDC) on time, as member states were unable to agree on the extent of emissions reductions. 

Instead, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, presented a non-binding ‘statement of intent’ at a special High-Level Event on NDCs hosted by the UN Secretary General on 24 September. This only provided an indication of what emission reduction target the EU might eventually adopt, rather than the done deal. 

It was in this context – with the US out and the EU divided – that President Xi Jinping announced China’s new NDC via video at UNGA.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.