WIREDGOV

At this year’s NATO Summit, Donald Trump won, Ukraine lost, Europe rolled out the red carpet and exposed the total psychological dependency on the US.

The main objective for NATO at the Hague Summit was to placate Trump and in doing so avoid the fallout that Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky was subjected to in the Oval Office. Evaluated on this narrow – but important – goal then the Summit was a success. However, it has exposed deeper problems for the Alliance.

NATO is at risk of succumbing to the whims of US politics and becoming totally consumed by internal management crises, rather than focusing on growing external security threats. The July 2024 Washington Summit was designed solely to maximise the chances of Joe Biden’s re-election. The Alliance delivered, providing a well-choreographed opportunity for a 75th anniversary celebration, but Biden sealed his own fate – referring to President Zelensky as ‘President Putin’ during the closing press conference. One year on, the Hague Summit was a similarly choreographed kow-tow to Trump and US leadership of the Alliance for fear of causing an upset. The self-described ‘strongest alliance in history’ has reduced itself to the total subservience of a single man. In doing so, the Europeans have eroded that little deterrence value they had in the eyes of their principal enemy – President Putin. Putin only fears attacking US forces in Europe, making the expected drawdown of the US military from the continent a strategic risk for NATO and an opportunity for Russia who will seek to exploit gaps.

The Alliance must proceed with caution. Its disastrous involvement in Afghanistan – both the initial invasion in 2001 and the huge expansion of the mission in 2006 – was borne about by trying to please a US President. It represented the largest individual and collective military failure since the Cold War and significantly reduced European militaries’ abilities to deter and defend against Russia after prosecuting years of crisis management operations.

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