WIREDGOV

While Europe celebrates Pashinyan’s win, the Kremlin is focused on his weakened mandate, accusations of Western intervention and the long game in the South Caucasus.

Armenia’s 7 June parliamentary elections were widely viewed as a test of Russia's influence in the South Caucasus. In the run-up, Moscow deployed a similar interference strategy as it has with other former Soviet states, combining diplomatic, economic and informational pressure to boost support for pro-Russia candidates while discrediting the pro-European incumbent, Nikol Pashinyan.

While Pashinyan’s party, Civil Contract, retained a parliamentary majority, the loss of its constitutional majority will pose challenges for his third term. Meanwhile, analysts have pointed to a long-term and sustained campaign of Russian hybrid electoral interference for at least a year prior to the election. This campaign coincided with pro-Russian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan and his Strong Armenia party (established in 2025) polling second, with twice as many seats as pollsters predicted.

Establishing causality when assessing influence campaigns is challenging. Yet there is a realistic possibility that Russia’s hybrid interference campaign contributed to this outcome, and that Russia’s efforts may yet serve the Kremlin’s strategic objectives in the long term.

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