Big changes underway in the climate system?
Regional temperature and rainfall worldwide will be affected by big changes that are underway in key global climate system.
New research shows regional temperature and rainfall worldwide will be affected by big changes that are underway in key patterns in the global climate system.
The latest climate predictions and global observations suggest that shifts in key global climate patterns, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), an El Niño in the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are underway. They are implicated in the weak Indian monsoon and relatively inactive Atlantic hurricane season this year and will affect regional temperature and rainfall worldwide in coming years. They also affect global temperature; with a warming influence from El Nino and positive PDO, and a cooling from a negative AMO.
Professor Adam Scaife said: "Although we can't say for sure that the slowdown in global warming is over, global temperatures are now rising again."
These changes suggest both 2015 and 2016 are likely to be very warm globally. Earth's average surface temperature is running at or near record levels so far in 2015 at 0.38±0.14°C* above the 1981-2010 average (0.68±0.14 °C above the 1961-1990 average). The observations of exceptional global temperature this year agree well with the Met Office forecast issued in 2014.
Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, Professor Stephen Belcher said: "We know natural patterns contribute to global temperature in any given year, but the very warm temperatures so far this year indicate the continued impact of increasing greenhouse gases. With the potential that next year could be similarly warm, it's clear that our climate continues to change."
These changes are consistent with a return of rapid warming in the near term. Professor Scaife continued: "We can't be sure this is the end of the slowdown but decadal warming rates are likely to reach late 20th century levels within two years."
Further long-term warming is expected over the coming decades, but the patterns described in this report will continue to vary the pace of that warming.
Latest News from
Are you WeatherReady?04/10/2022 14:10:00
New research from the Met Office suggests that 55% of people in the UK with vulnerable neighbours or relatives would check on them ahead of severe winter weather.
Food and farming – Delivering science to our stakeholders03/10/2022 13:15:00
Met Office science is helping UK farmers prepare for a changing climate. This work includes a number of ‘Climate Services’ which are funded by Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs), as well as other projects.
‘Fusing’ the best of UK science to build resilience to high-impact weather events and climate change30/09/2022 15:15:15
An urgent need to understand the increasing impacts of extreme weather and climate change and how these affect society is the focus of an expanded Met Office initiative which is developing deeper partnerships with key British universities.
Warnings issued ahead of an unsettled end to the week29/09/2022 14:38:00
The Met Office have issued yellow warnings for wind and rain for parts of Scotland ahead of a spell of wet and windy weather that will sweep across the country.
Wet and windy end to the week28/09/2022 15:43:00
The rest of this week is looking changeable and rather cool for many with a spell of strong winds and heavy rain on Friday.
Met Office concludes project demonstrating uncrewed aircraft operations28/09/2022 13:15:00
Uncrewed drones could be a step closer following the conclusion of a project as part of Future Flight Challenge Phase 2.
An autumnal week ahead27/09/2022 15:05:00
Cool and unsettled weather is expected throughout this week across the UK, with the windiest and wettest weather anticipated on Friday.
Cool weekend on the way for most22/09/2022 12:43:00
Spells of cold weather will continue over the weekend and early next week, but by the end of next week the UK will see milder and more typical autumnal weather.