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Calibrated Force: Operation Sindoor and the Future of Indian Deterrence

The strikes by the Indian Air Force against targets in Pakistan offer a powerful lesson in restraint, and Operation Sindoor adds a new approach to India's strategic toolbox.

An Indian policeman and others look at part of an unknown, crashed aircraft in Wuyan near Indian-administered Kashmir's main city of Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir, India 8 May, 2025.

In response to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India launched Operation Sindoor on 7 May. Initially limited to strikes on terrorist-linked targets, the operation expanded over several days, with subsequent phases coinciding with Pakistani retaliation. Within hours of the first sorties, international media had seized on Pakistani allegations that their Chinese-built J-10s shot down up to five Indian aircraft, including three French-made Rafaels. In the absence of official clarification from India, the episode was swiftly recast in popular outlets as a technology shootout between Chinese and French fighters. Lost in the noise were the questions that mattered: What were India’s objectives? Were they achieved? And what does this operation reveal about the future trajectory of South Asian deterrence?

Losing the Narrative

In any military campaign, shaping the strategic narrative is nearly as important as shaping the battlespace. Unfortunately, India ceded that narrative space. The initial silence from Indian military spokespeople created an information vacuum. Into that vacuum poured commentary that was often technically uninformed and strategically misleading.

What emerged was a distorted framing of the conflict. Rather than serious analysis of India’s targeting methodology, command intent, or escalation thresholds, coverage focused instead on the air-to-air engagement that led to the loss of Indian aircraft. Undue prominence was given to the performance of specific platforms, with little regard for the broader operational context or the rules of engagement that shaped the encounter. As a result, Chinese arms manufacturers enjoyed a perceived PR win – one arguably disproportionate to the tactical or strategic context of the engagement.

A Quiet Operational Success

That misleading narrative obscures a more consequential truth: despite Pakistani tactical successes, India appears to have largely achieved its stated objectives. On the opening day of strikes, the Indian Air Force (IAF) demonstrated a credible capacity to identify and destroy what New Delhi characterised as terrorist-linked infrastructure in Pakistani territory, employing stand-off weapons to deliver precision strikes at speed. In the following days, operations expanded in scope, penetrating Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied air defence network to target select forward airbases for the first time since the 1971 war.

While losses were incurred, these must be evaluated against the scale and complexity of the mission – not simply tallied in isolation. The mere fact that the Indian Air Force could strike targets under defended conditions and undertake follow-on attacks demonstrates its capacity for coercive precision operations.

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