Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 18)
Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.
This paper provides modelling outputs on the current epidemic in Scotland as a whole, based on a range of methods. Results of Scottish Government modelling, as well as those of the modelling groups which feed into the SAGE consensus are provided in the first part of this research findings.
Secondly, a short term forecast of the number of cases in the next two weeks is included, as the focus at this stage of the epidemic is the re-emergence of the virus in Scotland rather than whether there is sufficient hospital capacity to treat large numbers of Covid cases.
Finally, results showing the level of social contacts against baseline pre-pandemic levels are reported to illustrate where transmission may be occurring.
Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland (Issue No. 18) 12 page PDF, 586.7 kB
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