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The Armed Forces have a significant shortage of personnel with skills in critical areas and are not expected to meet this shortfall within the next five years, says a report, published yesterday, by the National Audit Office (NAO).

The report highlights that the number of full time military personnel, known as regulars, in the Armed Forces is 5.7% (8,200 regulars) below the existing requirement – the largest gap in a decade. There are, though, much larger gaps in critical skills. 102 ‘pinch-point’ trades do not have enough trained regulars to carry out operational tasks without measures such as cancelling leave or training. The challenge is also likely to grow as the Ministry of Defence (the Department) will increasingly require new specialist technical and digital skills to respond to the emerging threats of modern warfare.

Many shortfalls will remain in the near future. The Department estimates that it will resolve the shortfalls in only six of these 102 ‘pinch-point’ trades within the next five years. The Department has prioritised essential defence tasks, but the report highlights that the approach of placing increasing demands on regulars is not a sustainable long-term solution.

The shortfalls result mainly from recruitment and retention problems. In 2016-17 there was a 24% shortfall against targets for the number of regulars recruited into the Armed Forces. The Department’s reliance on a ‘base-fed’ model – where it recruits regulars into the lowest ranks and develops their skills and experience over time – has not enabled it to close capability gaps quickly enough. The Commands have implemented initiatives to improve the recruitment of skilled personnel but many of these were at an early stage and small-scale.

The percentage of regulars leaving the Armed Forces voluntarily has increased from 3.8% annually in March 2010 to 5.6% in December 2017, with 7,500 regulars leaving voluntarily in the 12 months to December 2017. In some trades and ranks, this percentage is several times higher than the average. Since 2010, the Department is implementing a substantial programme of changes to support service personnel; for example, it is rewarding people for their skills through a new pay model and is introducing new arrangements to allow more flexible working.

But the situation is yet to improve. There are gaps in many ranks and trades, and in 2017, the Armed Forces were 23% below their target for training new regulars. The Armed Forces Continuous attitude survey also shows that satisfaction with pay, accommodation and service life has decreased since 2010, and in 2017 were at lowest recorded levels. The NAO recommends the Department carries out deeper analysis of the causes of higher levels of departure in certain pinch-point trades.

The NAO has found that the Department has not established effective authority to undertake a strategic assessment of Armed Forces’ future workforce capability. Under the Department’s operating model, the Chief of Defence People has authority for personnel across the Armed Forces, but is not able to direct Commands or tackle workforce capability problems that necessitate a cross-Command, longer-term or structural response. The responsibilities of this role are under review and the NAO recommends that the Department fundamentally re-considers how it develops the number of skilled personnel it requires.

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