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EXPERT COMMENT

After an unambitious summit, NATO allies must return with laser focus to the key issues that were left off the agenda.

As the NATO summit in The Hague concluded, European leaders likely returned home feeling largely relieved. There was no major upheaval and Trump even seemed to have warmed to his NATO peers, saying during the closing press conference that ‘they love their country very much’. 

But the ambition for this summit was low. The agenda was shortened to minimize potential disruption, resulting in an equally short summit communique. Meanwhile, Ukraine was decoupled from the summit to prevent major public disagreements between presidents Trump and Zelenskyy, and the Netherlands – and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte – rolled out the red carpet for Trump. 

There was a sense that the other NATO countries and Rutte just wanted to make it through the less than 24-hour summit without any drama – and they succeeded. Indeed, for much of it, Trump seemed more focused on the aftermath of the US strikes on Iran than on NATO.

As expected, allies agreed to spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence, which includes 3.5 per cent on core defence and 1.5 per cent on resilience, cybersecurity and infrastructure. This increase will serve to meet NATO capability targets and ensure allies can service the new regional plans approved during the 2023 Vilnius summit. It will also start the process of shifting the burden from the US to Europe. Spain caused perhaps the biggest upset at the summit by stating it can meet NATO capability targets by spending only 2.1 per cent of its GDP. This will have implications for alliance unity and could cause resentment among member countries who spend more.

Getting through the summit is an important signal to Putin: a public fall out among allies in the current context would have given Russia further vulnerabilities to exploit. But this low bar for the summit is problematic given the external security environment. Now that the summit is over and the alliance remains intact, allies should return with laser focus to the key issues what were left off the agenda.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.