WIREDGOV

“This weeks labour market data may represent the calm before the storm. Unemployment, employment and inactivity have remained roughly the same – not great but not getting worse. However, the vacancy and redundancy figures may be ominous signs.

“Vacancies have plunged back to pre-Covid levels from their unprecedented heights in 2022. Indeed, vacancies in large firms have fallen significantly below those at the beginning of 2020. It is understandable that employers have been cautious about taking on new workers, with NIC hikes, big minimum wage increases and the Employment Rights Bill coming down the tracks. The tariff wars are only going to add to this.

“Redundancies are comparatively rare in the UK, with the costs associated with dismissals leading employers to rely on natural wastage and not replacing leavers rather than sacking people. But the figures suggest a gradual increase in redundancies earlier this year, which as always will tend to hit the private sector and men more than the public sector and women.

“There are few grounds for optimism about labour market prospects for the next few months.”

Note to Editor

The mission of the Institute of Economic Affairs is to improve understanding of the fundamental institutions of a free society by analysing and expounding the role of markets in solving economic and social problems. The IEA is a registered educational charity and independent of all political parties.

Labour market overview, UK: April 2025