WIREDGOV

The number of children aged under 16 in England is expected to decline by 6% over the next decade – policymakers will have to decide how to respond.

The number of children aged under 16 in England is expected to decline by 6% over the next decade. These declines are expected to be even faster in Scotland (8%), Wales (10%) and Northern Ireland (15%). For the UK as a whole, the number of children aged under 16 is forecast to fall by 800,000 between now and 2035.

In the face of these changes, the government has so far chosen to protect total schools spending in real terms up to 2029. This will increase per-pupil funding in real terms. In the future, policymakers will need to decide whether this remains the right judgement as pupil numbers continue to fall. Choosing instead to maintain per-pupil funding and allowing total funding to fall would generate savings, but require a reduction in the number of teachers and schools. 

Previous policymakers have made different choices when faced with falling pupil numbers. Broadly, large falls in pupil numbers in the 1970s and 1980s were met with cuts in the number of teachers, particularly in secondary schools. In contrast, when pupil numbers were falling during the 2000s there were actually increases in teacher numbers. 

These are the main conclusions of a new IFS report, published and funded by the Nuffield Foundation. 

Other key findings include: 

• Falling numbers of children mainly reflect reduced fertility levels. The total fertility rate has fallen from 1.9 babies per woman in 2010 to 1.4 by 2024, well below the replacement rate of around 2.1. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) currently expects fertility to stabilise at about 1.4–1.5 in the future. However, previous ONS forecasts over the last 10 years have also predicted stabilisation in fertility and it has instead continued to decline. It is therefore possible that falls in pupil numbers could be even larger than current forecasts.
• Primary school pupil numbers are falling especially quickly in Wales, Scotland and London. Between 2016 and 2025, primary school pupil numbers fell by 3% in Scotland, 4% in Wales and 9% in London, as compared with a 1% fall across the whole of England. Some local areas are facing particularly large falls. In Wales, the largest falls were in North Wales, with falls of 9–10% in Gwynedd, Wrexham and Flintshire. In Scotland, we see falls of 12–13% in Dumfries and Galloway, North Ayrshire and West Dunbartonshire. In Inner London, most councils saw falls of 10–20%.
• Primary school closures have been more common in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and much less common in England. Between 2016 and 2025, the number of primary schools fell by 7% in Wales, 3% in Scotland and 6% in Northern Ireland, but by close to zero across England. This is not explained by the faster fall in pupil numbers: even in London, where primary school pupil numbers fell by 9%, school numbers have only fallen by 2% to date. 

Luke Sibieta, a Research Fellow at IFS and author of the report, said: 

‘Falls in the number of children will dramatically reshape the make-up of the UK population. That will have big implications for the education sector. Policymakers will have to decide how to respond – will they look to make financial savings through employing fewer teachers or closing schools? Or will they protect education spending and deliver smaller class sizes? In practice, previous governments have gone for a mix of policies, which were often shaped by the economic and fiscal situation of the time.  

‘While closing a school can be problematic for local communities, maintaining school numbers as they are might not be the best thing for pupils either. With a dramatic fall in pupil numbers, some schools might struggle to offer a full breadth of curriculum options.’

Josh Hillman, Director of Education at the Nuffield Foundation, said:

‘Education policymakers can use the decline in the number of children in UK schools as an opportunity to improve teaching and learning quality. Achieving this will require careful decisions about teacher recruitment and retention, as well as managing the possibility of school closures.’ 

Demographic change and schools across the UK: lessons from history