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EXPERT COMMENT

An embattled regime which is facing mass protests, an ailing supreme leader, and a murky succession process cannot afford to politically stagnate.

Current protests present the Iranian regime with a far more immediate crisis than the selection of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s eventual successor. But the opaque succession process – and the underlying questions over its legitimacy and lack of accountability – will haunt Iran’s political system long after the unrest has been quelled.

Having succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, Khamenei is now the longest-ruling leader of a Middle Eastern state, and his death will herald a significant transition for both Iran and the wider region.

Competition to succeed him will be intense, and whatever the outcome, the way the transition unfolds will have far-reaching consequences for Iran’s relationship with its Arab neighbours and Western adversaries.

Iran’s succession process has formal and informal components that are reflective of the elected and unelected bodies in its hybrid religious system, where the supreme leader sits above the fray yet maintains overarching power and influence.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.