NIESR: August GDP Tracker suggests that growth is set to nudge higher to 0.5% in the third quarter
UK economic growth back on track
- Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy has recovered from a soft patch earlier in the year and is now growing at a pace that is at or slightly above potential.
- According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter. The outturn was in line with the monthly GDP forecast that we published last month for the same period and is close to our estimate of potential growth rate. Building on the official data, our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that growth is set to nudge higher to 0.5 per cent in the third quarter.
- Recent survey evidence suggests that the manufacturing and construction sectors are recovering after a particularly weak start to the year and the dominant services sector is set to maintain a similar rate of growth in the third quarter.
Amit Kara, Head of UK macroeconomic forecasting, said “The economy recovered in the second quarter after the unexpected slowdown in the first quarter. Growth is now close to our estimate of potential. Looking ahead, there is some evidence to suggest that services sector output has stabilised while the relatively small construction sector continues to gather momentum. GDP growth is expected to strengthen to 0.5 per cent in the third quarter.”
Our next GDP Tracker will be published on the 10th of September.
Please find the full commentary in attachment
Notes for editors:
For further information please contact the NIESR Press Office or Sarah Stevens on 020 7654 1907/ firstname.lastname@example.org
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
2 Dean Trench Street
London, SW1P 3HE
Switchboard Telephone Number: 020 7222 7665
Latest News from
JRF - New Cabinet faces living standards crisis if they go ahead with cut to Universal Credit16/09/2021 15:20:00
JRF responds to House of Commons debate on the planned cut to Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit.
Civitas - Two Tests for UK Trade: Does seamless, tariff-free trade boost exports and does distance matter?16/09/2021 14:20:00
During the UK’s departure from the European Union, debate about UK trade policy was dominated by two assertions:
Inflation could reach 5 per cent by Christmas, says IEA Expert15/09/2021 16:10:00
Julian Jessop, Economics Fellow at free market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs, responded to ONS consumer price inflation figures for August 2021
IEA - Think tank helped ensure UK-EU FTA “against the odds”15/09/2021 14:15:00
The Institute of Economic Affairs has reached the final of this year’s Templeton Freedom Award, which celebrates organisations that have made a meaningful impact on the proliferation of free market ideas through education, policy research or media outreach.
JRF - New research highlights ‘shameful’ racial disparities in housing system15/09/2021 09:10:00
Welfare and immigration policies are contributing to sharply unequal access to affordable housing among BAME communities. A new report from the independent Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) analyses the impact of these policies.
IEA - UK ranks 12th amongst 165 jurisdictions in economic freedom14/09/2021 15:20:00
The UK ranks 12th out of 165 countries and territories included in the Economic Freedom of the World: 2021 Annual Report, released today by the Institute of Economic Affairs in conjunction with Canada’s Fraser Institute. Last year, the UK ranked 13th.
Adam Smith Inst - 2.1 Million Vulnerable Unvaccinated14/09/2021 10:05:00
Raft of measures proposed to protect human life and liberty as Covid-19 becomes endemic
Adam Smith Inst - NEW POLL: Brits back freer movement with New Zealand14/09/2021 09:05:00
A new poll from the Adam Smith Institute and C|T Group RSR confirms that Brits are eager to strike a trade deal with New Zealand which includes freer movement and mutual recognition of qualifications.
IFS - NHS funding boost should be enough to meet pressures over the next two years, but not in the medium term13/09/2021 14:20:00
Last Tuesday the Prime Minister announced a new funding settlement for health and social care in England. This included an additional £6.6 billion for NHS England in 2022−23 and £3.6 billion in 2023−24, on top of pre-pandemic plans, in the face of ongoing pressures from the COVID-19 pandemic.