NIESR: Head of UK Macroeconomic Forecasting reacts to the latest CPI inflation data released today
NIESR’s Head of UK Macroeconomic Forecasting, Amit Kara yesterday said: “Annual CPI inflation was unchanged at 3.0 per cent in October. Although today’s outturn is just below the level that automatically triggers an explanatory letter from the Governor to the Chancellor, CPI inflation is set to remain stubbornly above the target rate of 2 per cent until at least mid-2019 on our forecast. Household disposable income will be squeezed as a result.”
He added: “Today’s inflation data comes alongside other data that point to slightly higher economic growth in the second half of this year. This requires a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus to stop the economy from overheating especially if, as we expect, productivity growth remains weak in the UK. Consistent with that, our latest forecast is conditioned on a 25 basis points increase in Bank Rate every six months such that the policy rate reaches 2 per cent in 2021”
Notes for editors:
For further information and to arrange interviews, please contact the NIESR Press Office:
Paola Buonadonna on 020 7654 1923 / email@example.com
NIESR aims to promote, through quantitative and qualitative research, a deeper understanding of the interaction of economic and social forces that affect people's lives, and the ways in which policies can improve them.
Latest News from
JRF - Rising prices and the benefit freeze make families £500 worse off14/12/2017 12:35:00
Ashwin Kumar, Chief Economist at the independent Joseph Rowntree Foundation, commented on yesterday’s inflation figures
IFG - Government must act on public inquiry recommendations14/12/2017 11:35:00
Government has spent £639m on public inquiries over the last 30 years and increasingly relies on them to examine major incidents and tragedies. But a new report finds that the process for following up on recommendations is inadequate.
Demos - New research finds Brits believe citizens, not state, should pay for retirement14/12/2017 10:35:00
A new report from Demos think tank shows that more than 57 per cent of the public believe that the individual has greater responsibility than the Government in meeting the costs of their care. And yet, the research reveals that there is a gap between citizens’ expectations and the realities of the preparations they will be able to make for their futures.
JRF - Low-paid sectors hit hard by falling real wages14/12/2017 09:35:00
Ashwin Kumar, Chief Economist at the independent Joseph Rowntree Foundation, responded to yesterday’s labour market statistics