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NIESR: Head of UK macroeconomic forecasting Amit Kara reacts to the latest ONS CPI inflation data

NIESR’s Head of UK macroeconomic forecasting, Amit Kara said: “CPI inflation was 2.9 per cent over the 12 month period to May, broadly consistent with our forecast published in the May Economic Review.

We expect inflation to rise further over the course of this year and to reach a peak in the final quarter of 2017. This spike in inflation will exert further downward pressure on real household disposable income, at a time when wage growth remains modest, and in turn squeeze consumer spending.”

He added:  “Although inflation has surprised the Bank of England on the upside, we expect the MPC to look through this temporary spike in inflation and hold monetary policy stable until mid-2019.”.

Notes for editors:

For further information and to arrange interviews, please contact the NIESR Press Office:

NIESR aims to promote, through quantitative and qualitative research, a deeper understanding of the interaction of economic and social forces that affect people's lives, and the ways in which policies can improve them.

Further details of NIESR’s activities can be seen on or by contacting . Switchboard Telephone Number: +44 (0) 207 222 7665

Related information:  Consumer price inflation

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