NIESR: Monthly GDP Tracker – UK Output Stagnated at end of 2019
- The UK economy is on course to post zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, consistent with growth of 1.4 per cent in 2019 as a whole. On the basis of recent trends we tentatively forecast service sector-driven growth of 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 (figure 1).
- According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months to November, a little faster than we had expected last month reflecting upward revisions to the September and October data.
- Output fell by 0.3 per cent in November itself, with falls of 0.3 per cent in services and 1.7 per cent in production outweighing an increase of 1.9 per cent in construction. Monthly data is volatile and the forecast improvement in growth in the first quarter of 2020 assumes that the weakness in services in November proves to be temporary.
- Recent surveys suggest that economic activity was little changed in December, though there is some evidence of an improvement in business sentiment after the election.
Dr Garry Young, Director of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting yesterday said:
“The latest data confirm that economic growth in the United Kingdom had petered out at the end of last year. GDP was virtually flat in the three months to November and the latest surveys point to further stagnation in December. While there is some evidence of an improvement in business optimism following the general election, it is doubtful that this will do much to change the short-term economic outlook of further lacklustre growth.”
Please find the full analysis in the document attached
Notes for editors:
For further information please contact the NIESR Press Office: Phil Thornton on email@example.com / 0207 654 1982
or Luca Pieri on firstname.lastname@example.org / 079 305 44631
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
2 Dean Trench Street
London, SW1P 3HE
Switchboard Telephone Number: 020 7222 7665
Latest News from
IPPR - Investing in a green recovery could create 1.6 million new jobs after Covid crisis, report finds03/07/2020 16:20:00
Plan for a clean and fair recovery, including drive to insulate homes and fit low-carbon heating, is ‘best way’ to boost economy says IPPR
IFS - Career disruption caused by COVID-19 threatens prolonged cost for young workers03/07/2020 15:20:00
There is growing evidence that the lockdown has had particularly negative impacts on young people’s labour market outcomes. New IFS research, funded by the Turing Institute, shows that the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to severely disrupt the career progression of young workers, suggesting that negative economic impacts on this age group may last well beyond the easing of the lockdown.
IPPR - Youth unemployment set to more than double by end of the year according to think tank03/07/2020 14:20:00
£3 billion government intervention needed to create hundreds of thousands of jobs and support young people, says IPPR
Civitas - ‘Schools should reopen fully’ in September – government must ‘drop all requirements for children to practice social distancing with immediate effect’, says think-tank report02/07/2020 14:35:00
Given the expectation for school reopening plans in England to be unveiled by the government this week, the government should ‘drop all requirements for children to practice social distancing with immediate effect’, urges a new Civitas report.
Adam Smith Inst - Real New Deal is Boris' Promise of Planning Reform02/07/2020 13:35:00
Despite worrying news of an interventionist ‘New Deal’ for the country, the best noises from the Prime Minister Boris Johnson in his speech in Dudley come in the detail of promised planning reform. Much of which builds on suggestions the ASI has made in recent months and years — including the great research work done by London YIMBY’s John Myers.
JRF responds to the Prime Minister’s speech promising a 'New Deal' for Britain02/07/2020 12:35:00
Helen Barnard, Acting Director of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation responded to the Prime Minister’s speech promising a 'New Deal' for Britain
IPPR North responds to PM’s ‘Build Build Build’ speech02/07/2020 11:35:00
IPPR North Director Sarah Longlands responded to the PM’s ‘Build Build Build’ speech
IEA responds to PM’s plan for the UK’s economic recovery02/07/2020 10:35:00
IEA Senior Academic Fellow Professor Philip Booth responded to the Prime Minister’s plans for the UK’s economic recovery post Covid-19
PM Speech: IPPR reacts to planning and housing plans that ‘fall woefully short’ of what is needed02/07/2020 09:35:00
High Streets put at risk due to plans to reform planning laws, says IPPR
IPPR - Covid housing affordability crisis: three quarters back call for dedicated, affordable housing for key workers30/06/2020 15:35:00
An IPPR report today, together with new polling commissioned by the think tank, warns that housing affordability issues are set to intensify due to Covid-19, with those on low incomes and privately renting most affected.