NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker – UK economy slows as stockpiling boost fades
UK economy slows as stockpiling boost fades
- The UK economy is on course to contract by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2019, a marked slowdown from the first quarter when growth was boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the original Brexit departure date (figure 1).
- According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded by 0.3 per cent in the three months to April. This outturn was weaker than the 0.4 per cent growth rate that we forecast last month for the same period.
- The slowdown in the three-month growth rate was associated with a 0.4 per cent fall in GDP in April, driven by falls in the production and construction sectors. Within manufacturing, there was a 24 per cent fall in car manufacturing related to factory shutdowns planned for after the original Brexit departure date. Output in the service sector was flat in April.
- Recent surveys suggest that there has not been a material recovery in output in May. Economic contraction of 0.2 per cent in the second quarter is expected to be mainly driven by the production and construction sectors, with a small positive contribution from the service sector.
Garry Young, Head of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting, said “The UK economy is on course to contract by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter. The latest GDP data were weaker than expected, partly reflecting shifts in production around the original Brexit departure date, including a 24 per cent fall in car manufacturing. The underlying picture is also quite weak, with Brexit-related uncertainty at home and trade tensions abroad dragging on investment spending and economic growth”.
Please find the full commentary in attachment.
Notes for editors:
For further information please contact the NIESR Press Office or Paola Buonadonna on 020 7654 1923/ email@example.com
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
2 Dean Trench Street
London, SW1P 3HE
Switchboard Telephone Number: 020 7222 7665
Latest News from
IPPR North: 1 in 4 North East Public Sector Jobs Lost Since Austerity Began20/06/2019 11:35:00
Stark figures released yesterday show that the North East has seen the biggest percentage cut to public sector workers of all of England’s regions.
NIESR reacts to the latest ONS CPI inflation statistics20/06/2019 11:33:00
According to figures released yesterday by the ONS, consumer price index inflation decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.0 per cent in the year to May 2019.
IFS - Big increases in in-work relative poverty rate are about much more than just low pay20/06/2019 10:35:00
Big increases in in-work relative poverty rate are about much more than just low pay
Employ migrants in jobs that match their qualifications to boost economy by £7bn, says IPPR20/06/2019 09:35:00
Investing in integration would boost productivity by using the untapped skills of migrant workers
IEA - UK farming industry can prosper unshackled from the Common Agricultural Policy18/06/2019 11:35:00
IEA report sets out proposals for agriculture, post-Brexit
IEA - The Chancellor is right to emphasise the importance of fiscal responsibility18/06/2019 09:35:00
Kate Andrews, Associate Director at the Institute of Economic Affairs responded to the Chancellor’s plea to keep national debt falling every year
IFG - Candidates for Prime Minister must prepare now13/06/2019 10:35:00
Conservative MPs who want to become Prime Minister must think beyond the immediate leadership contest and face the practical challenges of being head of government.
NIESR Monthly Wage Tracker: Public sector earnings growth provides a temporary boost to whole-economy wages12/06/2019 11:51:00
Public sector earnings growth provides a temporary boost to whole-economy wages.