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EXPERT COMMENT

Despite the bitter exit of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS and their formation of the rival AES, the destinies of the two blocs remain deeply intertwined.

The split between the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des États du Sahel – AES), formalized by the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS in January, represents a major political reconfiguration in West Africa. It threatens to exacerbate instability in the Sahel region, which has already been contending with widespread jihadist violence compounded by localized inter-communal tensions over land and resources. 

Under the military juntas that seized power between 2020 and 2023, the three AES countries have abandoned many established structures for cooperation with their neighbours and resolutely turned away from the West in line with what they claim to be a rejection of external interferences and an assertion of sovereignty.  They insisted on the departure of French, UN and US troops and aligned themselves with Russia, inviting Russian security contractors in and sending their foreign ministers to visit Moscow for the latest high level talks with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on 3 April. After forming the AES in 2023, they upgraded the alliance to a formal confederation last July, before announcing a joint military force in January. 

The AES’s new announcement of tariffs on imports from non-member states includes coastal ECOWAS countries with which they share a long history of economic integration and unimpeded trade, such as Nigeria. The announcement shows that AES leaders continue to prioritize symbolically loaded political gestures ahead of trade, the cost of living and development. After five years of increasingly bitter political confrontation over the military’s seizure of power in the Sahelian states, the 12 remaining countries of ECOWAS, previously Africa’s most integrated grouping, are now faced with a rival regional bloc.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.