Policy Exchange - Ethnic minorities will make up a third of Britain by 2050
Stop treating ethnic minority communities as one voting bloc, says think tank as in-depth study reveals unique traits among different groups.
People from ethnic minority backgrounds will make up
nearly a third of the UK’s population by 2050.
A major new study by leading think tank Policy Exchange reveals that the five largest distinct Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) communities could potentially double from 8 million people or 14% of the population to between 20-30% by the middle of the century. Over the past decade, the UK’s White population has remained roughly the same while the minority population has almost doubled. Black Africans and Bangladeshis are the fastest growing minority communities with ethnic minorities representing 25% of people aged under the age of five.
The handbook, A Portrait of Modern Britain, draws on an extensive set of survey, census, academic and polling data to build up a detailed picture of the five largest minority groups in the UK – Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Black Africans and Black Caribbeans. The paper outlines the demographics, geography, life experiences, attitudes and socioeconomic status of each of these major ethnic groups. The purpose of the research is to show that there are clear and meaningful differences between each of these communities, which need to be fully understood by policymakers and politicians.
The study also reveals that while the face of Britain has changed and is continuing to become even more multi-racial, people from ethnic minority backgrounds have a far stronger association with being British than the White population. In the 2011 Census, only 14% of Whites identified themselves as being purely British, with 64% seeing themselves as purely English. All other ethnic minority communities were over four times more likely to associate themselves with being British. 71% of Bangladeshis and 63% of Pakistanis considered themselves purely British. A quarter of the Black Caribbean community see themselves as purely English, while just over half (55%) see themselves as just British.
Other key findings include:
- Ethnic minority communities predominantly live in three main cities, with 50% living in London, Manchester and Birmingham alone. They are seven times more likely to live in an urban area than someone who is white. The Indian community is the most dispersed, the Bangladeshis the least. The Pakistani community is predominantly based in towns in the North and the Midlands, while over half of all the Black community lives in
- While most ethnic minority groups live in large households (bigger than the White population), this is not true for Black Caribbeans. Pakistani and Bangladeshi households are the biggest, containing four or more people. 40% of Black people live in social housing, while two thirds of Indians and Pakistanis live in their own accommodation.
- Although all BME communities have higher levels of unemployment and low level of full time workers than the White community, Indians cluster in the highest skilled professions. Almost all minority groups, except the Indian community, have unemployment rates double the national average. Black Africans (18.3%) have the highest unemployment rate. 39% of Pakistani and 42% of Bangladeshi women have never worked. 24% of Pakistani men are taxi drivers and half of all Bangladeshi men work in restaurants. In contrast 43% of Indians work in the highest skilled professions.
- All minority groups have higher proportions of students staying on in formal education, especially university, at 16 and 18 than the White population. All minority groups have higher proportions of students attending Sixth Form and then staying in some form of education post A-levels than the White population. Bangladeshi are the fastest improving group at Key Stage 5 (GCSE) and 70% of Indian students go to university, compared to 43% of White students.
- All BME communities – regardless of age and social class - strongly support the Labour Party, but Indians are up to four times more likely to identify with the Conservatives. 17% of Indians identify with the Conservatives compared with 4% of Black Africans, 7% of Black Caribbeans, 8% of Bangladeshis and 9% of Pakistanis.
- All ethnic minority groups have a higher trust in Parliament and politicians in general than the White population, except the Black Caribbean community where only 1 in 5 trust politicians. Trust in the police is high among all communities except Black Caribbeans, with only 42% saying they have faith in the police.
Rishi Sunak, co-author of the handbook, said:
“The face of Britain has changed and will keep changing over the next 30 years. From the post-war arrival of Jamaicans and Indians to the recent influx of Africans, the UK is now home to a melting pot of different cultures and traditions.
“These communities will continue to become an ever more significant part of Britain, especially in future elections. However, as our research demonstrates ethnic minorities are not one homogeneous political group. From education to employment, housing to trust in the police, politicians from all parties must understand the different issues affecting individual communities.”
Latest News from
IEA - Disposable vape ban could cost lives, says new IEA paper29/09/2023 13:20:00
Vaping has helped millions of people quit smoking, a ban on disposable e-cigarettes would take away that safer choice.
IPPR - Take a leaf out of Biden playbook and tie green incentives to good, well-paid jobs says IPPR29/09/2023 12:20:00
As the world transitions to net zero, the UK is being left behind through lack of ambition on policies which deliver good jobs and a truly fair transition
IFS - Chancellors’ responses to economic news28/09/2023 10:25:00
Chancellors don’t respond symmetrically to good and bad economic news. This represents a risk to the accuracy of official borrowing forecasts.
The King's Fund responds to the Leader's speech at The Liberal Democrat party conference28/09/2023 10:20:00
Sally Warren, Director of Policy at The King’s Fund, Responded to yesterday’s speech by Ed Davey MP, leader of the Liberal Democrat party
IEA - Bank of England could cost taxpayers £100 billion in losses on QE, says Rt Hon Sir John Redwood MP27/09/2023 16:20:00
The Bank of England should cease selling bonds purchased as part of quantitative easing (QE) to avoid further losses to taxpayers
IFS - Pensions Review Mirrlees Review Living standards, poverty and inequality Budget analysis Election analysis Green budgets Inequality: The IFS Deaton Review Row of terraced houses Report Reforming inheritance tax27/09/2023 15:20:00
We set out issues with the inheritance tax system and examine options for reform and the distributional impacts of reforming or abolishing the tax.
IPPR - Liberal Democrats have grasped that better health and care are the path to a stronger economy, says IPPR27/09/2023 11:20:00
Following Ed Davey’s speech at the Liberal Democrats’ conference, IPPR welcomed key Liberal Democrat policy announcements on health and social care.
IPPR - UK's tax obsession debunked: most advanced economies with higher taxes than UK have higher income growth27/09/2023 09:20:00
Setting an arbitrary ceiling on the so-called tax share of the UK economy risks hampering national growth and prosperity, according to a new report by IPPR.
IPPR - Teach democracy classes in all schools and give votes at 16 to boost young people’s faith in politics, report urges25/09/2023 09:05:00
Young people’s sense of disengagement and disempowerment in society should be reversed by stepping up civic education in schools and reducing the voting age to 16 for all elections in England, according to a new report by IPPR which calls for four big 'learning gaps’ in English schools to be addressed.