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Failed efforts to increase prison capacity results in endemic overcrowding amid safety risks, increasing violence and hampered rehabilitation efforts.

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• Public Accounts Committee

Overcrowding forces UK prisons to be focused on averting disaster, instead of rehabilitation. In a report published today, the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) urges the Government to take rapid action on the prison estates crisis, with forecasts indicating that prison capacity will run out again in early 2026, despite the recent early release of thousands of prisoners.  

The report finds a system in crisis, with the safety and security of prisons at risk and HM Prison and Probation Service’s (HMPPS) ability to rehabilitate offenders hampered. The adult male prison estate, at as high as 99.7% occupancy between October ’22 and August ’24, is alarmingly full. HMPPS says it can’t run the estate efficiently at over 95% occupancy. The PAC’s inquiry found that around a quarter of prisoners are sharing cells designed for one person, often with an open toilet. Violence is increasing, with fights between prisoners up by 14%, and attacks on staff up by 19% at September ’24.  

Evidence to the inquiry also showed that the crisis puts barriers in the way of prisoners accessing overstretched education and drug treatment services – both essential to rehabilitation. The PAC also heard that the strain some prisons are under means that prisoners do not always receive required health assessments or safety interviews. This creates significant risks around self-harm and pre-existing health issues.  

To prevent it running out of prison places early next year, HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) is relying entirely on uncertain future changes to how sentencing works. These will be laid out in the Sentencing Review in late spring, with HMPPS further assuming any required changes in the law could be introduced very quickly. The position is worsened by fire safety problems. HMPPS has committed to taking non-fire safe cells out of use by 2027 - around 23,000 cells did not meet safety standards at March 2024.  

Bringing the prison estate into a fair condition will cost an estimated £2.8bn, and will also require headroom in capacity. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has only received £520m in maintenance funding over the next two years. The PAC has asked MoJ to outline its plans to address the prison estate crisis within two months of the Sentencing Review’s publication.  

The PAC’s report is critical of MoJ and HMPPS’ failures in increasing capacity. In 2021, Government committed to delivering 20,000 additional prison places by the mid-2020s. These plans were completely unrealistic, based on assumptions that planning permission would be secured for new prisons in 26 weeks. Plans to deliver the remaining places, expected five years late in 2031 and costing £4.2 billion (80%) more than planned, are also fraught with risk and uncertainty. Sites have already been used where development is easiest, and the collapse of major contractor ISG, which went into administration in September ’24 will cause further delays both to building new prisons and addressing the maintenance backlog. The PAC calls on both MoJ and HMPPS to outline what they are doing to assure Parliament that their plans are now realistic. 

Chair comment 

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown MP, Chair of the Committee, said: “This Committee recognises and respects the extraordinary work carried out by prison staff. This work is often done in the most difficult circumstances, even when the system is working at optimal efficiency. But our inquiry has established that severely overcrowded prisons are in danger of becoming pressure cookers. Vital rehabilitative work providing purposeful activity including retraining would help to cut high rates of reoffending – but this work is sidelined as staff are forced to focus on maintaining control of increasingly unsafe environments. Many prisoners themselves are living in simply inhumane conditions, with their health needs often overlooked.  

“As with our recent inquiry into court backlogs, we find a Department grappling with the fallout of problems it should have predicted, while awaiting the judgment of an external review before taking any truly radical corrective action. Lives are being put at increasing risk by the Government’s historic failures to increase capacity. Despite the recent emergency release of thousands of prisoners, the system still faces total gridlock in a matter of months. It is now for the Government to act on the recommendations in our report if disaster is to be averted.”