Scotland’s population projections
Inward migration the only driver of population growth.
Scots are expected to live longer but inward migration will be essential to ensure the country’s population continues to grow, according to national statistics published today.
The figures project that there will be 240,000 more pensioners over the next 25 years, an increase of 23.2%, while the working age population reduces by 7,000 people.
No natural growth is expected, meaning that deaths are anticipated to outweigh births each consecutive year from now on, with the only population increase coming from inward migration.
Life expectancy is projected to increase for men and women, and the gap between male and female life expectancy will narrow, with a baby girl born in 2043 living to 83.8 years and a baby boy living to 80.6 years.
Cabinet Secretary for Culture, Tourism and External Affairs Fiona Hyslop said:
“We want people in Scotland to live longer, healthier and happier lives so this projected increase in life expectancy is extremely welcome.
“Today’s figures also suggest that inward migration will be the only driver of population growth in Scotland, however, they do not take into account the damaging potential impact of Brexit.
“Our pension age population is projected to grow while our working age population falls, and could decline even further if EU migration is reduced. This is why Scotland needs inward migration to support our public services and economy, particularly in sectors like tourism, hospitality, construction and agriculture, but also to enrich and diversify our society.
“The Scottish Government recently established a Ministerial taskforce to look at Scotland’s future population challenges and develop new solutions to address demographic changes, including supporting rural settlement and growing our birth rate and working age population.
“However, it is clear Scotland urgently needs powers to deliver a tailored immigration system so we can mitigate against the risks of the UK Government’s increasingly restrictive policies and ensure Scotland can continue to be a welcoming, progressive and diverse country.”
Chief Executive of the National Records of Scotland and Registrar General for Scotland Paul Lowe said:
“Scotland’s population is projected to continue increasing, but at a slower rate than it has done in previous years.
“Past trends suggest that there could be more deaths than births in the next few years, with migration to Scotland projected to be the only driver of population growth.
“Over the next 25 years, there are projected to be a growing number of older people, fewer children, and the working age population is projected to make up a slightly lower proportion of our total population given the expected increase to the pensionable age population.”
National Records of Scotland have issued a statistical news release about the figures.
Additional analysis showing the possible effect on the future population size of Scotland in scenarios of reduced EU migration is also available.
A projection is a calculation showing what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends and do not attempt to predict the impact of political circumstances such as Brexit. If recent changes have not yet affected population estimates or trend data that the projections are based on, they will not affect the projections.
Latest News from
Taxi and private hire car licensing consultation: responses summary14/11/2019 16:25:00
Summary of consultation responses relating to the concerns raised about the impact of modern technology on the licensing regime for taxis and private hire cars as a result of the Air Weapons and Licensing (Scotland) Act 2015.
Strengthening Irish links14/11/2019 15:05:00
First Minister meets Irish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister.
Assessing the effectiveness of inspection activity: HMFSI report14/11/2019 13:05:00
While responsibility for delivery standards and for improving public services lies with the organisations that provide the services, public bodies are generally subject to external scrutiny as a check, challenge, and reassurance on how they are performing.
Pesticide usage in Scotland14/11/2019 10:05:00
Pesticide use on arable crops grown in Scotland in 2018 has declined according to a new report.
Ministerial statement: Humza Yousaf statement on Sheku Bayoh - Next steps13/11/2019 15:25:00
Cabinet Secretary For Justice – Parliamentary Statement on Sheku Bayoh – Next Steps – Tuesday 12 November 2019.
National action plan to prevent and eradicate FGM: year three report13/11/2019 14:10:00
Update on the progress that has been made since the publication of the national action plan to prevent and eradicate Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) in February 2016.
New drive to curb online puppy sales13/11/2019 13:05:00
People in Scotland are increasingly buying puppies online despite the risk of purchasing from illegal breeders, according to new research.
Living with flooding: action plan13/11/2019 12:05:00
Living with flooding recommends actions for a range of stakeholders to take to help promote property flood resilience in Scotland.
Death of Sheku Bayoh13/11/2019 10:05:00
A statutory public inquiry will be held to examine the circumstances leading up to and following the death of Sheku Bayoh, Justice Secretary Humza Yousaf announced yesterday.