WIREDGOV

Provides further analysis and insights on the economic themes presented in the monthly Scottish economic bulletin.

Introduction

The Scottish economy strengthened in 2024 with a moderate pickup in GDP growth following two years of largely flat output, and continued to grow into the beginning of 2025. This was coupled with lower and more stable inflation leading to the start of gradual loosening in monetary policy and forecasts of strengthening growth for the coming year.

However 2024 was very much a year of two halves with the pace of growth slowing in the second half of the year and inflation expectations for the year ahead rising. The last six months in particular has seen a significant shift in the economic landscape arising from an increase in domestic and international uncertainty, contributing to a weakening in business and consumer sentiment and resulting in a sharp downward revision to forecasts for the year ahead.

Furthermore, the US implementation of increased tariffs on goods imports into the country has generated significant volatility as markets react to the announcements and other countries and regions consider their response. Increased tariffs and the current scale of economic uncertainty has also raised expectations of a further downward revision in the economic outlook across countries.

This edition of the Scottish Economic Insights provides an update on current economic uncertainty and risks and provides further analysis on economic growth and activity over the past year, the loosening in the labour market and the shifting economic outlook.

Click here for the full press release