Chatham House
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Sinwar’s death does not make Hamas–Fatah reconciliation more likely, whoever his successor may be
EXPERT COMMENT
The killing may aid Hamas recruitment – but it will not make agreement with Fatah any easier to achieve.
Western political leaders were quick to argue that Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on 17 October presented an opportunity for a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of Israeli hostages.
US President Joe Biden immediately called on Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to seize the moment to negotiate, now that Israel has achieved one of its war aims.
However, that ‘moment’ has already passed. Israel’s military assault on Gaza has intensified since Sinwar was killed, leading UN Peace Process Co-ordinator Tor Wennesland to say that ‘nowhere is safe in Gaza’. It is abundantly clear Netanyahu is intent on further degrading Hamas, resetting a new ‘power balance’ and carving out a buffer zone, no matter the cost in Palestinian lives or Israeli hostages.
But there are other implications of Sinwar’s assassination beyond the zero-sum analysis of will there or won’t there be a ceasefire.
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Original article link: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/sinwars-death-does-not-make-hamas-fatah-reconciliation-more-likely-whoever-his-successor
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