Chatham House
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The Belarus ‘election’ raises the question: When will Lukashenka step down?
EXPERT COMMENT
The result in the presidential elections was all too predictable. But has a power transition already begun? And can the West prevent continuing Kremlin domination in the country?
On Sunday, Aliaksandr Lukashenka ‘won’ his seventh term in office in a rigged election, extending his 30-year reign by another five years. Still ‘only’ 70, this makes him one of the longest-serving heads of state in the world.
The election campaign was, of course, sterile and uneventful. But Lukashenka’s occasional reference to ‘generational change in the coming years’ bears consideration. These remarks might have been dismissed as mere rhetoric were it not for earlier signals suggesting that a transition of power could soon dominate Belarusian politics.
Over the last three years, Lukashenka has reconfigured the country’s political system to secure his future. That includes creating an additional new role for himself: chairman of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, a position from which he plans to wield power after stepping down as president.
Constitutional guarantees of immunity for former presidents have already been introduced.
Speculation about Lukashenka’s health has long circulated, particularly among his opponents. But his physical infirmity is becoming increasingly apparent. Lukashenka’s physical appearance has changed. He has occasional problems with using stairs and has required a car to cover short distances.
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Original article link: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/01/belarus-election-raises-question-when-will-lukashenka-step-down
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