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EXPERT COMMENT

A surge of tens of thousands of migrants into Spain’s North African enclave strains relations with Morocco and EU members like Italy. It could seriously undermine the prime minister’s position.

On 30 July, the border between Morocco and the North African Spanish enclave of Ceuta effectively collapsed. Spanish officials put the number crossing within 24 hours in the tens of thousands, perhaps as many as 50,000. Ceuta’s population is around 85,000.

At least 57 people are reported to have died in what has also become a humanitarian crisis. Spain has deployed the armed forces to support the Guardia Civil, and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has travelled to the city. Dramatic images have flooded the media. Some European governments have suggested suspending the Schengen agreement or for Spain to be removed from it. On Friday, Italy unilaterally ordered the closure of its sea and air borders with Spain. 

Many in Spain blame the Moroccan government for the crisis. Morocco has never publicly acknowledged using migration as an instrument of pressure against Spain. In this case, Moroccan government sources have blamed ‘criminal organizations’. Indeed, publicly Sánchez has used similar language.

But those who accuse Rabat say surges of migrants into Ceuta and Melilla (Spain’s other enclave on the African continent) have a habit of arriving when Rabat wants Madrid to understand the importance of maintaining good relations – and then of subsiding again once that point has landed.

Whatever the truth, the situation has created a diplomatic crisis – and could see immigration become a leading issue in Spain’s general election next year.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.