WIREDGOV

States may be tempted to pursue their own nuclear weapons as they seek deterrence against attacks amid uncertainty over US guarantees.

The US-Israeli war with Iran is taking place as the global non-proliferation regime is already under significant strain. 

New START, the last bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia, expired in February with nothing to replace it. China is currently expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal. France has announced an expansion of its nuclear programme and closer cooperation with European partners. 

Public opinion in several non-nuclear states such as Turkey, Poland and South Korea seems to be shifting towards support for developing domestic nuclear capabilities, as the lessons of the Cold War and the devastating consequences of nuclear weapons fade from living memory. 

This comes amid rising doubts over Washington’s ability to uphold its extended deterrence and security commitments to allies. In particular, the US’s reported redeployment of part of its THAAD missile defence systems from South Korea to the Middle East may be cause for concern among US allies in East Asia.

The strains on the non-proliferation regime predate the Iran war and the reported THAAD redeployment. But they risk fracturing the regime at precisely the moment when the international community can least afford it.