WIREDGOV

EXPERT COMMENT

China will be forced to continue hedging its bets as it adjusts to a fundamentally changed Middle Eastern security outlook.

China has scored significant wins from the 12-day Israel–Iran war. It can now buy more Iranian oil without being sanctioned. It can secure future contracts to rebuild Iran’s economy and industrial base. And it will be satisfied to see the United States once again distracted by events far from the Indo-Pacific. Importantly, China can now guarantee Iran will not pivot toward the West after the military humiliation it received.

However, the conflict did expose some weaknesses in Beijing’s policy. China was unable to offer itself as a mediator, exposing its lack of leverage over Iran – because of mutual mistrust and a lack of depth in the two countries’ economic partnerships. Beijing also showed it ostensibly has no influence on Israel. 

The war has potentially also created a ‘Hormuz Dilemma’ for China, where its energy security and national development becomes uncomfortably vulnerable to future flare-ups in the Gulf.

In fact, all potential post-war scenarios indicate that increased escalation in the Middle East will heighten pressure on Chinese interests. Consequently, if China fails to adopt a more proactive security approach in the region, its ability to influence events will continue to diminish.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.