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EXPERT COMMENT

The implications will depend on how effectively the opposition can channel the energy unleashed by the arrest into political processes and narratives.

On 19 March, Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was taken into custody on charges of corruption and misuse of public office. Two days later, he was arrested. These dates are significant because on 23 March, Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), was scheduled to choose its presidential candidate in a primary for upcoming elections in 2028. Imamoglu was the sole candidate. This context has led a wide spectrum of the public to view the arrest as motivated more by the desire to remove a formidable presidential rival than address corruption.

Since Imamoglu’s arrest, Turkey has experienced nationwide protests, which are gradually ebbing. The opposition has been morally and politically boosted by these events. And the CHP has political momentum now. However, with three years until the election, maintaining this momentum will be an uphill battle.

Much will depend on how effectively the opposition can channel the energy unleashed by the arrest into political processes and narratives, while navigating this new phase of Turkish politics.

Three issues are of paramount importance here: how to address the presidential candidate question; how to ensure that the CHP and its candidate can appeal beyond their traditional social base; and how to avoid identity politics and focus on governance and policy issues.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.