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EXPERT COMMENT

The US will hit three self-imposed deadlines this summer: on tariffs, international organizations and the debt ceiling. Administration choices will make it clearer how President Trump sees the global order – and harder to argue that the fundamentals of US strength are undamaged.

As NATO suddenly appears to be back in President Trump’s good books, Middle East diplomacy and IAEA inspections are seemingly out. For observers who are trying to keep up and understand how the Trump administration views the US’s role in the world, three upcoming deadlines should help clarify things.

The first is 8 July, when the 90-day grace period for bilateral trade negotiations around Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs will expire – or not, creating intense drama and uncertainty for most of the world’s economies. The second deadline is 3 August, which is the delivery date for a Trump-mandated review of all treaties and international organizations in which the US participates. The third deadline comes in August, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that the US will reach its debt ceiling and will be unable to borrow money, unless Congress raises or suspends the limit before summer recess begins in July. 

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.