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Trump’s ambiguous stance on China raises the risk of accidental conflict in the Indo-Pacific

EXPERT COMMENT

The incoming US administration must reduce uncertainty over its stance on China or risk accidental escalation over flashpoints like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Incoming US President Trump is known for his belligerent rhetoric on China. But while his stance on economic competition is clear, his stance on security issues – including defence of Taiwan and guarantees to US military allies like the Philippines – is not. Meanwhile, despite ongoing corruption scandals Beijing is proceeding apace with military modernization, its aim being to outclass the US in the East and South China Seas while also expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal.

For both China and the US, the strategic calculation in the Indo-Pacific is ultimately underpinned by the risk of war. President Xi Jinping set out China’s ‘red lines’, including its claims to Taiwan, in his final communication with US President Biden at APEC last November. 

He also emphasized that the ‘Thucydides trap’ – the idea that a rising and established power will eventually come to blows – is not inevitable. Beijing’s ideal scenario is to achieve its territorial goals in the East and South China Seas without Washington getting involved.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.

 

Channel website: https://www.chathamhouse.org/

Original article link: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/01/trumps-ambiguous-stance-china-raises-risk-accidental-conflict-indo-pacific

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