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EXPERT COMMENT

Tehran has few good options, but the US should not overplay its hand, says Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox in Amman.

As the world assesses the impact of the US’s strikes against Iran’s nuclear programme, there are hopes that Washington and Tehran each have new incentive to negotiate. But the opportunity for miscalculation by the US, Israel and Iran is high and so therefore is the chance of regional escalation. 

The US’s aerial assault in the early hours of Sunday clearly inflicted damage on key Iranian sites. But here in Amman, Jordan, the conflict seems far from settled. Sirens have sounded twice since my arrival to warn of falling debris from missile interceptions. For Jordanians, and others in the region, the US’s actions have brought new fear of a widening war.

The key question is how much damage the US inflicted on the nuclear site at Fordow, protected by the mountain above. In his speech after the strikes, President Donald Trump claimed they had ‘totally obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear sites. But there is much suspicion among intelligence forces, backed up by aerial surveillance showing movements of vans and trucks, that Iran has been moving out the most enriched uranium for weeks, preserving it from destruction. 

That is not a hard task. Enriched uranium is about as heavy as gold, it is not bulky – the amount needed for one nuclear weapon is a little bigger than a bowling ball and Iran is thought to have enough for nine. (It is possible it may still be in canisters in powder form). It can also be handled fairly safely, with just gloves and respirator. 

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.