WIREDGOV

EXPERT COMMENT

Trump’s commitment to NATO is questionable. The EU cannot hope to deter Russia effectively without closer cooperation with Ankara.

With Donald Trump’s forthcoming inauguration, the question of the future of the European security order has become more pressing – and so has the need for clarity about Turkey’s place and role within that order. In this respect, Trump’s return might provide much needed impetus for the European Union (EU) and Turkey to finally engage in more serious dialogues on European security and on broader foreign and security policy cooperation.

Europe’s security environment has undergone a radical transformation in recent years. After the Ukraine war, the once prevalent idea of a security order that included Russia has been replaced by one that places Moscow firmly in the adversary camp. Similarly, the Gaza war, and the downfall of Syria’s Assad regime have fundamentally changed the geopolitics of the European neighbourhood, both in the East and South. 

Such changes necessitate a fresh approach that treats European security in the broader sense, bridging the gap between EU and non-EU European NATO member states. A structured foreign and security dialogue between Turkey, the UK, Norway and the EU is essential. Going forward, this dialogue should also aim to include non-EU and non-NATO European states such as Ukraine.

For European security, Russia remains the most immediate threat, and Europe cannot afford to have a security order that is set against Moscow and excludes Turkey simultaneously. The Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and Middle East are not separate zones in Russian-Western confrontation. Rather, they are largely a single space. And Turkey straddles all these regions.

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