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EXPERT COMMENT

US tariffs add to the sense of an increasingly unpredictable and unreliable partner. Allies in Europe and the Pacific are questioning foundational assumptions about their security arrangements as a result.

Alongside the market turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s shifting tariff policy, a parallel set of impacts are emerging in global security. The full effects may only be seen over time, but US tariffs threaten to produce outcomes that run contrary to Washington’s security objectives.

President Donald Trump assumes that he can afford to be overly assertive, even cavalier in his policies because other countries simply cannot afford to turn their backs on the US. But his constantly shifting tariff announcements have placed that belief under more stress than ever before. As trade with the US becomes more complex, unpredictable and expensive, some countries – including key US partners – may see additional incentives to rethink the extent of their security dependence on Washington.

The effects on international security are playing out differently among European and Asian allies, two regions that have relied on US security commitments for eight decades. But both are re-examining how committed this US administration is to their needs.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.