A 2026 ‘super El Niño’ could expose gaps in UK preparedness

26 May 2026 12:49 PM

EXPERT COMMENT

An El Niño event could disrupt UK weather, laying bare the vulnerabilities flagged by the Climate Change Committee’s new report.

Global average temperatures have risen to 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. This year, warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific are signalling a ‘super El Niño’ in mid- to late 2026, which could raise temperatures by a further 0.2°C. 

El Niño events are a natural part of the climate system, marked by periodic warming of the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, temporarily raising global temperatures and disrupting weather patterns. However, in a world already altered by climate change, cyclical climate patterns such as El Niño are no longer temporary fluctuations but forces that intensify the variability of weather patterns and compound the cascading impacts of climate change.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.