Beijing Learns from Trump’s Relationship to Europe and Putin

2 Sep 2025 01:05 PM

The recent spate of summits between Trump and other world leaders has provided a measure of the US administration that Beijing is happy to take.

The recent Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, along with subsequent meetings between European leaders, President Trump, and President Zelensky in Washington, largely confirmed Beijing’s earlier perceptions of the state of the transatlantic relationship. For China, both events underscored the unpredictability of US diplomacy under Trump and the opportunities this presents, often without requiring any action beyond maintaining the current course.

Trump's Inconsistency Helps China

One of the main lessons for Beijing is the inconsistency of President Trump. His frequent shifts in position make it challenging to understand his stance on any particular issue. Unpredictability is generally not something Beijing prefers; instead, it values predictability and stability in international relations. However, Beijing has adopted a ‘wait and see’ position, exploiting the vacuums created by the US in the global arena to decrease the United States’ overall influence. It is likely that this pattern of exploiting US-created vacuums – especially in multilateral settings and rule-setting arenas – will continue and intensify as Trump’s foreign policy remains transactional and unpredictable.

For international trade, this means slow shifts in international standards driven by China, increased compliance risks, and potential extended dependency on Chinese-led institutions. Analysts, such as Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, and Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, highlight how Trump's foreign policy actions, including alienating US allies and dismantling agencies like USAID, benefit China by reducing American power and resistance to Chinese outreach. This allows Beijing to improve ties with US allies, capitalise on US vulnerabilities and position itself as a stable alternative in international relations.

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