Beyond the Hype: AI, Ransomware and Business Models

27 Aug 2026 03:09 PM

AI is not (yet) fundamentally reinventing cybercrime. For bold predictions on how it will change, look to history to understand what drives criminal behaviour online.

We are frequently told by cyber security marketers that we are in the midst of an AI-powered revolution for cybercrime. The short version of these claims is that AI will significantly lower the barrier of entry for would-be cybercriminals, allow them to create autonomous variants of ransomware that will allow them to overwhelm defenders at a scale previously thought impossible.

However, such assessments start from a false premise about what drives the behaviour of cybercriminals. The history of modern cybercrime demonstrates two things. First, that cybercriminal behaviour has been driven more by innovation in business models than technical capabilities. Second, that cybercriminals tend to innovate when they have to, not simply because a new kind of technology becomes available.

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