China is playing the long game over Iran

1 Mar 2026 10:48 PM

EXPERT COMMENT

Beijing’s diplomatic restraint over the US’s standoff with Tehran should not be mistaken for unreliability or indifference.

Despite close ties with Tehran, China has refrained from coming out in strong support of its partner as the US continues its military build-up in the Gulf. 

Amid US threats to attack Iran, Beijing has focused on encouraging diplomacy and regional security. On 24 February, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated this position, saying that ‘We hope various parties will exercise restraint and resolve differences through dialogue.’

For some, China’s ostensibly neutral emphasis on restraint and dialogue in the face of US military threats may seem like it has abandoned Tehran, reinforcing the view that it is an unreliable partner.  This follows China’s inaction after the US kidnapped its close partner Nicolás Maduro and established control over Venezuela’s oil sector, in which Beijing had invested billions.

However, this is not new. China has always avoided backing Iran militarily. Beijing criticized the US and Israel’s strikes on Iran during the 12-day war in 2025 but did not provide material support to Tehran. Despite being a comprehensive strategic partner to Iran, Beijing also supported UN-led economic sanctions against Iran before the 2015 nuclear deal and has since procrastinated on injecting investment into the Iranian economy.

Instead, China sees Iran as a long game, which the US’s maximum pressure campaign may inadvertently help it win.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.