Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland (Issue No. 9)

16 Jul 2020 03:07 PM

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

• Modelling is undertaken to look at the progression of the epidemic in Scotland and to inform the logistical response required.
• This is done over two time periods. Short term, for the next two weeks, and longer term. Both of these help the Scottish Government and wider public sector plan their response and help determine if the measures in place are working.
• Modelling by the Scottish Government estimates that on 10 July there were around 60 new infections and 700 people in Scotland who could be infectious with Covid-19. Both of these numbers have fallen significantly in the last week.
• The modelling forecasts that the number of infectious people, the number of cases, hospital and ICU use and deaths are all likely to continue to fall over the next two weeks.
• We currently use the value of R to talk about Covid-19 in Scotland. On 15 July, R in Scotland was estimated to be between 0.5 & 0.9.
• These forecasts were based on estimates of moving in to phase 2 guidance, implemented from 18 June. Changes associated with the move to phase 3 will not be fully seen until early August. The longer term forecasts will be closely monitored against actual cases over the next few weeks as the situation changes.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland (Issue No. 9) 9 page PDF, 570.7 kB