From Syria to Somaliland: Turkey-Israel Competition Reshapes Region

8 Jan 2026 12:14 PM

As Turkish and Israeli planners increasingly frame their rivalry as an interconnected, multi-theatre contest, the margin for miscalculation is narrowing.

Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but functioned as a self-governing republic until December 2025 when Israel became the first state to extend formal recognition. The decision has generated controversy not least because of the legal precedent it sets under international law and its potential to exacerbate geopolitical competition in an already fragile and neglected policy space. More specifically, it risks accelerating competition between Israel and Turkey as their interests continue to diverge across the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and the wider Middle East.

Somaliland sits at a critical geostrategic crossroads opposite Yemen, overlooking the junction of the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, an area that has become increasingly vulnerable as Yemen’s Houthi movement has targeted international shipping lanes following the 7 October Hamas attacks on Israel and the ensuing war in Gaza. The crucial maritime space is increasingly securitised amid heightened competition over port access, basing rights, freedom of navigation and security partnerships.

Following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, the European Union reiterated the importance of respecting Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity, and a joint statement by 21 Muslim and African states condemned the decision as a dangerous precedent.

In the immediate aftermath, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud travelled to Istanbul for talks with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Turkey has played a sustained and influential role in Somalia since at least 2011, positioning itself as a key external partner in the country’s stabilisation, economic development and state-building efforts.

Within Israeli strategic thinking, Somaliland is seen as offering an operational and intelligence value in relation to Houthi activity, given its proximity to key Red Sea and Gulf of Aden maritime routes. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi condemned recognition of Somaliland, stating ‘We consider any Israeli presence in Somaliland a legitimate military target for our forces, as it constitutes aggression against Somalia and Yemen and threatens the security of the region.’

For Somalia, the recognition challenges efforts to consolidate federal authority and could complicate Ankara’s growing diplomatic and security engagement in the country. More broadly, the move underscores how peripheral theatres in the Horn are becoming increasingly entangled with Middle Eastern security calculations, particularly as states seek strategic depth, maritime leverage and alternative footholds along critical sea lines of communication.

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