HM Treasury’s economic analysis in the lead-up to the referendum on European Union membership

4 Jul 2017 02:09 PM

This review looks at the Treasury’s processes and procedures for forecasting the economic impact of leaving the European Union. 

It compares the HM Treasury analysis to other studies using publicly available information.

Downloads

• HM Treasury’s economic analysis in the lead up to the referendum on European Union Membership (pdf - 336KB)

In the lead-up to the referendum on European Union (EU) membership, HM Treasury published two reports analysing the potential economic impact of leaving the EU. In the first report, HM Treasury focused on a 15-year period following a leave vote, after which HM Treasury believed that the new relationship with the EU would be fully embedded and any uncertainty resolved. In the second report, HM Treasury analysed the potential impact of a short-term economic adjustment immediately following a vote to leave, covering the two-year period from the third quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2018.

This document provides background on how HM Treasury’s created its analysis, and puts that analysis in context with others published at a similar time.