Met Office Deep Dive: A look into Hurricane season

25 Sep 2025 12:10 PM

As autumn unfolds across the UK, the weather has taken a notable turn.

After a weekend marked by heavy rain and weather warnings, conditions have shifted to a dry and settled pattern, with chilly mornings becoming a familiar feature.

This deep dive explores the meteorological forces at play, the impact of high pressure, and the evolving outlook for the coming days and weeks.

High pressure dominates the UK

The recent spell of dry and settled weather is largely due to a persistent area of high pressure dominating the UK. High pressure systems are known for bringing stable conditions, clear skies, and cooler nights. Over the past few days, this system has kept rainfall at bay and led to widespread frost, particularly in rural areas. Temperatures have dipped below freezing in some regions, with Scotland experiencing the lowest temperatures overnight,

As the week progresses, the high pressure is forecast to drift eastwards towards Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea. This movement will gradually alter the wind direction, shifting from a northerly and north-westerly flow to a more east or south-easterly component. Such changes can influence local weather, bringing moisture from the North Sea and increasing cloud cover, especially in southern and southeastern parts of the UK.

The midweek outlook: Chilly starts and sunny spells

Wednesday and Thursday are expected to remain largely dry and settled, with sunny spells breaking through the cloud. Mornings will continue to feel chilly, particularly in western areas, where frost and mist may linger before clearing. The change in wind direction will help moderate temperatures, making mornings feel less cold by Friday.

Daytime temperatures are set to remain around average for this time of year, with mid to high teens across many regions. The far southeast may see the warmest conditions, occasionally reaching the high teens. Despite the brisk northerly winds earlier in the week, which made it feel cooler, the overall temperature profile is not expected to change significantly.

Weekend uncertainty: Hurricane Gabrielle and Atlantic disturbances

Looking ahead to the weekend, the forecast becomes more complex. The high-pressure system will continue to move east, allowing a new weather system to approach from the west. This system is linked to Hurricane Gabrielle, currently situated in the Atlantic and tracking towards the Bay of Biscay, Spain, and Portugal. There is a small chance, less than 5%, that Gabrielle could impact the UK directly with stormy conditions, but it is much more likely to affect southern Europe and the Azores.

Gabrielle has been a slow-moving feature, not fully picked up by the Jetstream, and has lingered in the Atlantic for several days. Its associated frontal system is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds to the Azores, and possibly to parts of western Europe. The interaction between high and low-pressure systems will fuel a south to south-westerly flow, introducing warmer air into the southwest and western Wales.

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