National Drought Group forecasts drought may remain beyond spring 2023

14 Oct 2022 02:33 PM

Projections suggest average rainfall over winter will not be enough to prevent drought conditions in some areas next year.

Average rainfall levels over winter will still not be sufficient to avoid impending drought or drought conditions next year, the National Drought Group has forecast.

At a meeting recently (14 October), chaired by Environment Agency Chief Executive Sir James Bevan, members discussed projections for a dry autumn and winter on the water, agriculture and environment sectors in 2023. Many water companies have suggested impending drought or drought conditions will remain beyond spring in some areas– notably in parts of the South West, South East, East and Yorkshire and East Midlands - if rainfall is below average.

The group, made up of senior decision-makers from the Environment Agency, government, water companies and key farming and environmental groups, also discussed actions needed over the next six months to sustain essential water supplies in preparation for spring/summer next year. This will include water companies implementing their drought plans and accelerating infrastructure plans to improve resilience of water supplies. Amongst other actions, the Environment Agency will manage water abstraction licences, take decisions on drought permits and operating its water transfer schemes.

NDG members heard that:

Projections were presented by the Environment Agency on behalf of contributing NDG members such as the water companies, the NFU and Canal and Rivers Trust.

Alongside this, the latest monthly national water situation report, published by the EA recently, shows that for the first time in six months, September rainfall across England as a whole reached average levels. However, due to soils remaining drier than usual, this has made little or no difference to reservoir levels and most of the country remains in drought.

River and groundwater levels remain low and reservoir stocks continue to decrease at all the reservoirs the Environment Agency reports on.

Essential water supplies remain safe, but recent rainfall has not changed the underlying drought situation caused by the prolonged dry weather of the last several months.

EA Chief Executive and NDG chair, Sir James Bevan recently said:

“Our lives, livelihoods and nature all depend on one thing - water. Climate change and population growth mean we need to take action now to ensure we have enough over the coming decades to manage everyday supplies, and more intense drought events.

“We have a plan to do that and delivering it will require all of us to work together – government, water companies, regulators, farmers and businesses, and each of us as individuals. The Environment Agency is determined to do its part.”

Water Minister Trudy Harrison recently said:

“The record-breaking temperatures, unusually low rainfall and widespread drought the country has experienced this year are a reminder that we need to adapt to ensure our water supplies are resilient and secure in future.

“The work of the National Drought Group is ensuring that we can manage down the risk of continuing drought conditions, so that the impact is less severe for all of us.”

In addition to the actions already being taken by the Environment Agency to manage the impacts of the drought, it has recently approved the following water company drought permits:

The following drought permits have recently been submitted to the Environment Agency by water companies:

Ensuring long term water security

The NDG’s projections place more focus than ever on the actions that must be taken now to enhance resilience to dry periods and the Environment Agency is redoubling its efforts to secure long term water security.

The National Framework for Water Resources (NFWR), launched by the Environment Agency in 2020 and agreed with the other regulators, the government and the water companies, sets out the scale of action needed to ensure resilient supplies and an improved water environment.

The NDG noted that many of the actions needed to ensure long term water security, notably the investment in new water infrastructure, will also play an important part in driving growth for the country as a whole. Members identified a set of actions to help accelerate delivery of that infrastructure and the water security it will help to ensure.

The NDG will meet again later this autumn to assess the latest position and take further action as necessary.

Further information:

Attendees at the recent NDG meeting: