Policy Exchange - Ethnic minorities will make up a third of Britain by 2050
6 May 2014 10:19 AM
Synopsis
Stop treating ethnic minority communities as one
voting bloc, says think tank as in-depth study reveals unique traits among
different groups.
People from ethnic minority backgrounds will make up
nearly a third of the UK’s population by 2050.
A major new study by leading think tank Policy Exchange reveals that the five
largest distinct Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) communities could potentially
double from 8 million people or 14% of the population to between 20-30% by the
middle of the century. Over the past decade, the UK’s White
population has remained roughly the same while the minority population has
almost doubled. Black Africans and Bangladeshis are the fastest growing
minority communities with ethnic minorities representing 25% of people aged
under the age of five.
The handbook, A Portrait of Modern Britain, draws on an extensive
set of survey, census, academic and polling data to build up a detailed picture
of the five largest minority groups in the UK – Indians, Pakistanis,
Bangladeshis, Black Africans and Black Caribbeans. The paper outlines the
demographics, geography, life experiences, attitudes and socioeconomic status
of each of these major ethnic groups. The purpose of the research is to show
that there are clear and meaningful differences between each of these
communities, which need to be fully understood by policymakers and
politicians.
The study also reveals that while the face of Britain has changed and is
continuing to become even more multi-racial, people from ethnic minority
backgrounds have a far stronger association with being British than the White
population. In the 2011 Census, only 14% of Whites identified themselves as
being purely British, with 64% seeing themselves as purely English. All other
ethnic minority communities were over four times more likely to associate
themselves with being British. 71% of Bangladeshis and 63% of Pakistanis
considered themselves purely British. A quarter of the Black Caribbean
community see themselves as purely English, while just over half (55%) see
themselves as just British.
Other key findings include:
- Ethnic minority communities predominantly live
in three main cities, with 50% living in London, Manchester and Birmingham
alone. They are seven times more likely to live in an urban area
than someone who is white. The Indian community is the most dispersed, the
Bangladeshis the least. The Pakistani community is predominantly based in towns
in the North and the Midlands, while over half of all the Black community lives
in
- While most ethnic minority groups live in large
households (bigger than the White population), this is not true for Black
Caribbeans. Pakistani and Bangladeshi households are the biggest,
containing four or more people. 40% of Black people live in social housing,
while two thirds of Indians and Pakistanis live in their own
accommodation.
- Although all BME communities have higher levels
of unemployment and low level of full time workers than the White community,
Indians cluster in the highest skilled professions. Almost all
minority groups, except the Indian community, have unemployment rates double
the national average. Black Africans (18.3%) have the highest
unemployment rate. 39% of Pakistani and 42% of Bangladeshi women have never
worked. 24% of Pakistani men are taxi drivers and half of all Bangladeshi men
work in restaurants. In contrast 43% of Indians work in the highest skilled
professions.
- All minority groups have higher proportions of
students staying on in formal education, especially university, at 16 and 18
than the White population. All minority groups have higher
proportions of students attending Sixth Form and then staying in some form of
education post A-levels than the White population. Bangladeshi are the fastest
improving group at Key Stage 5 (GCSE) and 70% of Indian students go to
university, compared to 43% of White students.
- All BME communities – regardless of age
and social class - strongly support the Labour Party, but Indians are up to
four times more likely to identify with the Conservatives. 17% of
Indians identify with the Conservatives compared with 4% of Black Africans, 7%
of Black Caribbeans, 8% of Bangladeshis and 9% of Pakistanis.
- All ethnic minority groups have a higher trust
in Parliament and politicians in general than the White population, except the
Black Caribbean community where only 1 in 5 trust
politicians. Trust in the police is high among all communities
except Black Caribbeans, with only 42% saying they have faith in the
police.
Rishi Sunak, co-author of the handbook, said:
“The face of Britain has changed and will keep changing over the next 30
years. From the post-war arrival of Jamaicans and Indians to the recent influx
of Africans, the UK is now home to a melting pot of different cultures and
traditions.
“These communities will continue to become an ever more significant part
of Britain, especially in future elections. However, as our research
demonstrates ethnic minorities are not one homogeneous political group.
From education to employment, housing to trust in the police, politicians from
all parties must understand the different issues affecting individual
communities.”
A Portrait of Modern Britain